information surface
信息面
Research firstResearch lanes
4
non-speed alpha lanes
Rule checks
required
before market sizing
Source feeds
mock
external probability inputs
Resolution risk
manual
UMA + edge cases
信息来源分层
alpha categories
规则文本 alpha
highest priorityresolution rules / UMA context
标题和规则不一致时，市场经常先交易标题。
专业领域 alpha
manual modelmacro / crypto / AI release cadence
不追新闻速度，追市场对流程和约束的误解。
结构关系 alpha
scanner readylinked markets / complements
相关市场之间的价格逻辑冲突比单点新闻更慢被修正。
结算路径 alpha
watchlistUMA proposal / dispute window
已知结果和正式 resolve 之间存在资金时间差。
研究纪律
先读 resolution rules，再看价格。
没有明确数据源的市场默认降权。
主观定义越多，仓位越小。
信息必须转成概率区间，而不是单条新闻判断。
研究队列
from research to market decision
| Market | Domain | Required evidence | Next step |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fed cuts rates by July FOMC? | Macro | Official FOMC statement | model probability |
| BTC above $110k on Jun 30? | Crypto | Coinbase spot + options skew | cross-market check |
| Candidate A leads national polling on Friday? | Politics | Named polling source | rule ambiguity |
| Major AI lab releases a new frontier model this month? | AI | Official product release | definition risk |